At the end of January, we published our first mock draft database of the season. At the time, 21 of the 25 mocks (84%) were projecting the Cowboys to take a linebacker, with Sonny Styles (17 mocks, 68%) the clear favorite. The second most popular position was cornerback with 15 picks (60%), followed by edge rushers with 11 picks (44%). The early consensus seemed to be LB Sonny Styles with the 12th pick and a CB with the 20th pick, a combo offered by 10 of the 25 mocks or 40% of the time.
But a lot has happened since then: The Super Bowl came and went, this year’s salary cap was announced, the Senior Bowl is behind us, and the Cowboys look to have completed their coaching hires, so it’s again time to turn our attention to the very serious business of mock drafting.
On the hypothesis that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock, we are taking a survey of 40 different mock drafts today. Importantly, all 40 mocks were published on or after February 1st, giving us a big data set of the latest mock drafts. And here are all those 40 mocks, and which two players they have the Cowboys selecting.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Mock Draft | Player (12th) | Position | College | Player (20th) | Position | College | Last Updated |
| NFL.com (Parr) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 12-Feb |
| Fox Sports (Rang) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Gabe Jacas | EDGE | Illinois | 12-Feb |
| NBCSports (Dvorchak) | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | Brandon Cisse | CB | South Carolina | 11-Feb |
| CBSSports (Podell) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 11-Feb |
| ESPN (Yates) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 11-Feb |
| Draft Countdown (Staff) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Monroe Freeling | OT | Georgia | 11-Feb |
| The Big Lead (Risdon) | T.J. Parker | EDGE | Clemson | Caleb Banks | DL | Florida | 10-Feb |
| Clutch Points (Crean) | T.J. Parker | EDGE | Clemson | Kayden MacDonald | DL | Ohio State | 10-Feb |
| CBSSports (Renner) | Jermod McCoy | CB | Tennessee | Blake Miller | OT | Clemson | 9-Feb |
| The Athletic (Baumgardner) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Brandon Cisse | CB | South Carolina | 9-Feb |
| Yahoo (Staff) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Brandon Cisse | CB | South Carolina | 9-Feb |
| McShay Report (McShay) | Akheem Mesidor | EDGE | Miami (FL) | C.J. Allen | LB | Georgia | 9-Feb |
| Bleacher Report (Sobleski) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 9-Feb |
| Draft Network (Eisner) | Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 9-Feb |
| Mock Draft | Player (12th) | Position | College | Player (20th) | Position | College | Last Updated |
| Sharpe Football (McCrystal) | Jordyn Tyson | WR | Arizona State | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 9-Feb |
| CBSSports (Edwards) | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | Colton Hood | CB | Tennessee | 9-Feb |
| SI (Morales) | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | Colton Hood | CB | Tennessee | 9-Feb |
| NFL.com (Reuter) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | S | Toledo | 9-Feb |
| USA Today (Middlehurst) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | S | Toledo | 9-Feb |
| Sporting News (Iyer) | Carnell Tate | WR | Ohio State | Kayden MacDonald | DL | Ohio State | 9-Feb |
| CBSSports (Rogers) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 9-Feb |
| Fox Sports (Klatt) | Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 9-Feb |
| NBCSports (Rogers) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 9-Feb |
| SI (Feinberg) | Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 9-Feb |
| CBSSports (Brockermeyer) | Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | 9-Feb |
| CBSSports (Wilson) | Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | 9-Feb |
| SB Nation (Schofield) | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | 9-Feb |
| Mock Draft | Player (12th) | Position | College | Player (20th) | Position | College | Last Updated |
| NFL Spin Zone (Debinger) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Akheem Mesidor | EDGE | Miami (FL) | 8-Feb |
| PFF (Cummings) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Akheem Mesidor | EDGE | Miami (FL) | 8-Feb |
| PFF (Chadwick) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 8-Feb |
| DraftWire (Popejoy) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Spencer Fano | OT | Utah | 8-Feb |
| USA Today (Ostly) | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | Cashius Howell | EDGE | Teaxas A&M | 7-Feb |
| NFL.com (Frelund) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | T.J. Parker | EDGE | Clemson | 6-Feb |
| Draft Countdown (Menedez) | Jermod McCoy | CB | Tennessee | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 4-Feb |
| DMN (Hoyt) | Jermod McCoy | CB | Tennessee | C.J. Allen | LB | Georgia | 2-Feb |
| NFL.com (Zierlein) | Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State | Jordyn Tyson | WR | Arizona State | 2-Feb |
| USA Today (Camenker) | Jermod McCoy | CB | Tennessee | Keldric Faulk | EDGE | Auburn | 2-Feb |
| ESPN (Miller) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | T.J. Parker | EDGE | Clemson | 2-Feb |
| PFF (Sikkema) | Caleb Downs | S | Ohio State | T.J. Parker | EDGE | Clemson | 2-Feb |
| Draft Network (Melo) | Sonny Styles | LB | Ohio State | Mansoor Delane | CB | LSU | 1-Feb |
That’s a ton of info to digest, with 21 different prospects mocked to the Cowboys somewhere in the first round, so let’s look at a few more digestible extracts from this exercise, starting with how this round of mocks compares to the last one.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition | ||
| Position | January | February |
| Linebacker | 84% | 48% |
| Cornerback | 60% | 40% |
| EDGE | 44% | 68% |
| Safety | 4% | 15% |
| Others | 8% | 32% |
| Wide Receiver | 4% | 8% |
| Running Back | 4% | 8% |
| Offensive Tackle | — | 8% |
| Defensive Tackle | — | 8% |
What we see here is a shift away from linebackers to edge rushers, plus a strong increase in “other positions” that didn’t get much attention in January. Naturally, this produces some “winners and losers” among the players mocked to Dallas:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| Mock Draft distribution by Player Posiition | |||
| Position | Player | January | February |
| LB | Sonny Styles | 68% | 43% |
| C.J. Allen | 8% | 5% | |
| Arvell Reese | 8% | — | |
| CB | Mansoor Delane | — | 18% |
| Jermod McCoy | — | 10% | |
| Colton Hood | 20% | 5% | |
| Brandon Cisse | 12% | 8% | |
| Avieon Terrell | 28% | — | |
| EDGE | Keldric Faulk | 24% | 25% |
| Cashius Howell | 4% | 20% | |
| T.J. Parker | 4% | 13% | |
| Akheem Mesidor | 12% | 8% | |
| Gabe Jacas | — | 3% | |
| S | Caleb Downs | 4% | 10% |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | — | 5% | |
| WR | Jordyn Tyson | — | 5% |
| Carnell Tate | 4% | 3% | |
| RB | Jeremiyah Love | 4% | 8% |
| DL | Kayden MacDonald | — | 5% |
| Caleb Banks | — | 3% | |
| OT | Blake Miller | — | 3% |
| Monroe Freeling | — | 3% | |
| Spencer Fano | — | 3% | |
Sonny Styles still remains the consensus favorite for the Cowboys, but his lead over other prospects has dropped. At cornerback, the attention in the mock drafts shifted towards the top two guys in this draft class, Mansoor Delane and Jermod McCoy at the expense of the other corners in this class. At edge, the Cowboys are completely out of the Rueben Bain and David Bailey sweepstakes, but Cashius Howell and T.J. Parker are new names popping up in the mocks. Safety is getting some mock interest, but having Caleb Downs dropping all the way to No. 12 seems more like a pipe dream than anything else at the moment. But keep an eye on Emmanuel McNeill-Warren, he’s been getting increasing interest lately. Also, why anybody would have the Cowboys invest their No. 12 pick in a WR, RB, or DT is completely beyond me.
But all of that doesn’t yet tell us too much about how the first round could play out for the Cowboys. For that, I plotted where seven specific players were taken in each of the 50 mocks. Those seven players are:
- The top safety, and maybe the best player in the draft, Caleb Downs
- The consensus top pick from the 40 mocks, Sonny Styles
- The top six edge rushers in the 40 mocks
- The top four corners mocked to the Cowboys
Here’s how often each player was taken at which spot in the 50 mocks:
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| 40 Mock Drafts – Summary Results | |||||||||||||
| Pick | Team | Rueben Bain | David Bailey | Caleb Downs | Sonny Styles | Mansoor Delane | Jermod McCoy | Keldric Faulk | Cassius Howell | T.J. Parker | Akheem Mesidor | Colton Hood | Brandon Cisse |
| Edge | Edge | S | LB | CB | CB | Edge | Edge | Edge | Edge | CB | CB | ||
| 1 | LV | ||||||||||||
| 2 | NYJ | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| 3 | ARI | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| 4 | TEN | 16 | 16 | 1 | |||||||||
| 5 | NYG | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| 6 | CLE | 1 | 1 | 4 | |||||||||
| 7 | WAS | 4 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 8 | NO | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| 9 | KC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||
| 10 | CIN | 4 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | ||||||
| 11 | MIA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 16 | |||||||
| 12 | DAL | 1 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 13 | LAR | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| 14 | BAL | 3 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| 15 | TB | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| 16 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| 17 | DET | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 18 | MIN | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
| 19 | CAR | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| 20 | DAL | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| 20+ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 29 | ||||
This table illustrates how the first round could likely play out for the Cowboys and the prospects they are interested in. One of the top two pass rushers, Bain or Bailey, is headed to Tennessee (#4) with the other one likely going to Washington (#7). Caleb Downs is a top 10 pick, and has a hard stop at Cincinnati (#10), though there is a slim chance he could fall to the Cowboys.
LB Sonny Styles could be a consideration for Washington at #7, but they should happily bite on one of the falling pass rushers, so there’s a 70% (28 of 40 mocks) chance he’ll be available at #12 for the Cowboys. Barring Caleb Downs falling to them (12.5% chance), the Cowboys should have the option of picking between Styles (70%) or cornerbacks Mansoor Delane (37.5%) or Jermod McCoy (50%). Which of the two corners fall depends on what Miami does at #11.
The mocks seem to agree, for now, that pass rusher is the likely pick at #20 for the Cowboys, and depending on which player the Cowboys have their eyes on, they might even consider trading down from the 20th spot if they can find a team interested in moving up.
Overall, that leaves the Cowboys with a lot of options, and if you boil it down to position combinations, here are the most frequent combinations among the 40 mocks:
- 23%: #12 CB/Safety, #20 Edge
- 20%: #12 LB, #20 Edge
- 10%: #12 LB, #20 CB/Safety
- 5%: #12 Edge, #20 CB
- 5%: #12 Edge, #20 LB
To get a little more clarity on which player could be available for the Cowboys, you can look up the player ranking on your favorite big board, you can make up your own ranking, and you could even use a consensus big board to figure out such a ranking.
Or we could look at the average draft position for each player based on the 40 mocks above, which is exactly what you’ll see in the table below. I included all LBs, CBs, edge rushers and safeties that were mocked to the Cowboys at least once, and added four more players to round things out (LB Arvell Reese, DE Rueben Bain, DE David Bailey, CB Avieon Terrell). To arrive at the average rank, I calculated the average across the 40 mocks, and where a player fell out of the Top 32, I used the 33th spot to calculate the average draft position.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; }| POS | Avg. rank | Player | Available at No. 12 | Available at No. 20 |
| LB | 2.6 | Arvell Reese | — | — |
| 12.4 | Sonny Styles | 70% | 10% | |
| 27.1 | C.J. Allen | 100% | 80% | |
| CB | 11.5 | Mansoor Delane | 38% | 5% |
| 12.9 | Jermod McCoy | 50% | 3% | |
| 25.1 | Avieon Terrell | 100% | 60% | |
| 26.3 | Colton Hood | 100% | 70% | |
| 27.7 | Brandon Cisse | 100% | 80% | |
| EDGE | 5.5 | Rueben Bain | 3% | 3% |
| 6.1 | David Bailey | 3% | — | |
| 18.0 | Keldric Faulk | 83% | 43% | |
| 23.1 | Cashius Howell | 100% | 60% | |
| 25.9 | T.J. Parker | 98% | 75% | |
| 26.1 | Akheem Mesidor | 100% | 70% | |
| 32.7 | Gabe Jacas | 100% | 100% | |
| Safety | 8.5 | Caleb Downs | 13% | — |
| 28.7 | Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 100% | 88% |
Within the confines of this 40-mock data set, that gives the Cowboys plenty of options, with the big caveat that it’s still a long way to go to the draft.
What would be your choice right now, based on these 40 mocks and the 21 prospects mocked to the Cowboys?