Packers Free Agency: Why Green Bay (probably) won’t offset their comp picks

Here’s a case study on how the Green Bay Packers have manipulated the compensatory draft picks system under Brian Gutekunst, some general thoughts on how the Packers are positioned going into the 2026 free agency cycle and how I think Green Bay should handle the next three or so years. Compensatory draft picks are confusing for many, so I really want to take this step-by-step. This is going to be a long one. I’m sorry, or you’re welcome.

Compensatory draft picks

Alright, we have to start with compensatory draft picks. Basically, the NFL functionally has an eight-round draft forced into a seven-round structure. Not only does each team get one original draft pick per round (if teams don’t trade these picks), but there are also 32 compensatory draft picks sprinkled in through the third and seventh rounds as a sort of “make right” for teams that lost top unrestricted free agents without offsetting them. That second part is very important. The JC-2A compensatory draft picks, which are awarded when teams produce a minority head coach or general manager for another club, are not included in these 32 picks and are added on top of the 32.

So, how does the NFL calculate who gets these 32 compensatory picks? Well, it’s a silly formula.

First, players are ranked in reverse order of their contract’s average per year (APY). The highest-ranked free agent who left in the 2025 offseason, per this formula, is current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, so we’re just going to use him as an example. Darnold came into the season making $33.5 million per year. Because 1,959 qualifying NFL players made less than him in 2025, he was awarded 1,959 points by the compensatory pick formula. That’s how the reverse order point system handles money.

Beyond that, Darnold also played 95 percent of the Seahawks’ snaps. For every percentage point that a player plays on offense or defense, he’s awarded a single point (minimum 25 percent of snaps played), so Darnold gets 95 points added to his 1,959 points that he received for his APY.

On top of that, players can receive up to 20 points for honors they earned during the season. A player can get the full 20 if he’s voted an Associated Press All-Pro or five points if they earn a Pro Football Writers of America honor. Darnold didn’t get an honor, so his final number is 2,054 (95 for playing time, 1,959 for his APY), which ranked him as the 15th overall player in the NFL in this compensatory pick formula. This is among all players, not just free agents. Jordan Love ranks ninth, and Micah Parsons ranks 17th. The point system goes all the way down to the negatives (because guys get hopped for roster spots). There are a ton of NFL players, and the vast majority of them make either the league minimum or close to it.

After these numbers are calculated for every player in the league, cutoffs are set. To earn a third-round pick, a team had to let a top-five percent player walk (and not offset their loss). Then it goes 10 percent, 15 percent, 25 percent and finally 35 percent for the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds, respectively.

Once players are assigned these round values, they can start to offset on the team level. More on this later.

Here are some examples of different types of offseasons, via OverTheCap’s tables.

The Philadelphia Eagles lost nine of these top 35 percent free agents in 2024 and didn’t offset a single one of them, which meant that they got nine extra picks in 2025 (but didn’t turn all of them in because of trades).

The Miami Dolphins lost six notable free agents in 2025 and offset the middle three, leaving them with extra third-, fourth- and seventh-round picks in the 2026 draft. These are projected, but are firm predictions now that we know how the system works (there was a time when we didn’t). The 2026 draft’s comp picks will officially be announced on the first day of the new league year on March 11th, the same day that free agency kicks off.

The Arizona Cardinals had only one qualifying free agent last year, offset that loss, and then signed five more qualifying free agents on top of that.

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So there’s a mix of what you can do with these comp picks. You can collect them, strategically offset the ones you want to offset or completely blow them out of the water with a spending spree. It’s all up to teams and where they’re at in terms of their competitive window, their cap situation and how much their owner is willing to spend.

Ted Thompson

Before Brian Gutekunst, the Packers were led by general manager Ted Thompson, and I want to give you guys some data on Thompson’s tenure, so that we can compare and contrast the two. OTC has data on comp picks through the 2013 offseason (awarded for the 2014 draft). From 2013 through 2017, the last five years in which Thompson was in charge, the Packers had 16 qualifying free agents hit the open market. None of those picks were offset. Green Bay collected every single one of them.

The Packers’ strategy used to be really simple: Spend absolutely no money in free agency and take the pick. It’s a little different now.

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Let’s get into the Gutekunst era and talk a little about what he did in each of his offseasons and the overall strategy behind it.

2018 offseason

I hate how this graphic is presented because it looks like the signing of Tramon Williams offset the Morgan Burnett loss, when, functionally, it was the Jimmy Graham signing. Had Williams not signed with the Packers, Graham would have already canceled out the Burnett pick. Williams was just a cherry on top.

Here’s how the comp pick offset rules read in the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement:

1. A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained.
2. If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value.
3. A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out.

So, yes, volume is a factor here. Canceling an equal CFA (compensatory free agent) is the first order of operations; then the formula looks for a lower-round pick to cancel out first. Only if there aren’t enough CFAs of equal or lesser value will the compensatory pick formula then cancel out a higher pick.

Theoretically, a seventh-round valued free agent coming in could cancel a third-round valued free agent going out if that was the only CFA leaving the team that season. In function, a team would be smart enough to protect that third-round pick and not offset it with a lower signing — even if it meant not participating in free agency that year. This is the NFL’s parity machine in action, and it’s not explained to fans well enough.

Back to the point: Burnett would have offset Graham here if not for the Williams signing. Functionally, treat this as the Packers overspending their loss (Burnett) by two rounds of value in the compensatory pick formula and then adding another free agent (Williams) on top of it. On the relative scale, they were spenders this year. $4.75 million per went out and $19.4 million per came in.

2019 offseason

This is when we all learned together that Brian Gutekunst was a little different than Ted Thompson. Not only did Gutekunst not collect the four draft picks, but he went on a huge spending spree. In total, the Packers had $15.59 million in collective APY going out in 2019, but Gutekunst offset the four picks by spending $43.75 million in collective APY (nearly three times the outgoing rate) in free agency. Every single one of these picks was offset by multiple rounds of value.

2020 offseason

After the spending splurge, it was time to collect some draft picks. The team did sign two decent-priced cap casualties this year, but players who are released from their contracts, and didn’t have their contracts expire, do not count in this formula. (Hint: Cap casualties are a way around the NFL’s imposed parity system, as are trades.)

2021 offseason

And then time to collect some draft picks again, since the cap was mostly spent (Green Bay structures most of their contracts as four-year deals that are backloaded, so the cost to keep a player, from a cap space perspective, goes up on a year-by-year basis).

2022 offseason

This was the one time that the Packers under Gutekunst actually offset a compensatory pick with an equal signing, and they still collected the Marquez Valdes-Scantling pick. For the most part, they either blow out a compensatory pick or collect it, not offset outgoing free agents with similar contracts.

Green Bay was not cheap this year by any means, but they didn’t spend on outside players. With just Jarran Reed added to the team, the Packers were the second-highest cash spend team in the league in 2022.

2023 offseason

Here’s another clear collection season, coming off the team’s last “all-in” push where they borrowed cap space from the future to keep the core of the roster together (the Packers mostly paid off the final Rodgers push’s debt, cap-wise, in the 2023 and 2024 seasons before finally getting to a stable spot in 2025).

2024 offseason

This is sort of a hybrid. They blew out what would have been the Jon Runyan Jr. and Darnell Savage Jr. signings by multiple rounds. (Again, I hate how this is presented because the Xavier McKinney pick would have offset the Jon Runyan Jr. pick had Josh Jacobs not been signed. Really, it should look like McKinney offsetting the Runyan selection and Jacobs offsetting the Savage selection.) But the Packers also collected the Yosh Nijman pick in the seventh round, too, even though $17.25 million per went out and $29 million per came in. Yes, you can gain comp picks and outspend losses in free agency if you do it in a specific way.

2025 offseason

This is another hybrid season where the Packers offset their projected top comp picks by multiple rounds of value but collected later picks. $11.55 million per went out and $31.25 million per came in, in terms of the offset picks.

Overall Strategy – Go big or go home

Since Gutekunst has been sitting in the big chair, the team has had 22 compensatory free agents. 13 times, they just collected the pick. Eight times they functionally offset the pick by signing a free agent with a compensatory value of at least one round higher (three times by three rounds, five times by two rounds and one time by one round) than the one he offset. Only one time — the signing of Jarran Reed, which offset the Lucas Patrick loss in 2022 — did the Packers offset a projected compensatory draft pick by equal value.

The strategy, 21 times out of 22 opportunities, has been go big or go home, with the exception being an offset seventh-rounder. They either blow the comp pick out of the water with a much more significant signing (8 of 9 compensatory free agents signed had two or more rounds of value than the picks they functionally offset) or just collect the pick.

The Packers have offset 11 total picks under Gutekunst (and added one extra player on top of the CFA count in 2018). When they’ve offset these picks, the collective APY of the players going out was $53.14 million, and the collective APY of the players coming in was $122 million, more than double the rate.

Current situation – Go home

What’s going to be hard for the Packers in 2026 is to outspend what they’re losing.

Based on the consensus free agent rankings, here’s where Green Bay’s top four free agents (teams can only collect up to four comp picks per NFL rules) rank:

• #7: Rasheed Walker, OT
• #9: Malik Willis, QB
• #18: Romeo Doubs, WR
• #33: Quay Walker, LB

If these players’ market rates are anywhere near their rankings, it’s going to be very, very tough for the Packers to outspend their comp pick value by multiple rounds, which is their usual strategy under Gutekunst. When Green Bay cancels comp picks, they usually outspend outgoing APY by 130 percent. It’s going to be almost impossible to spend 230 percent of the contract value of these players if Rasheed Walker gets $25 million per year, Malik Willis gets between $20 million and $30 million per year, Romeo Doubs gets north of $14 million per year and Quay Walker gets in the ballpark of $10 million to $15 million per year.

With the way the Packers like to offset comp picks, when they do offset comp picks, spending 2.3 times these four players’ (projected) value would be in the range of a collective $158 million to $204 million per year (Green Bay has only spent $122 million in collective APY offsetting picks since Gutekunst took the GM position in 2018). Spending to that scale, and the borrowing from future cap space it would need to take, would be unheard of in the NFL.

Short and simple: This offseason, Gutekunst will either:

1. Collect the comp picks
2. Uncharacteristically offset the comp picks for similar value (seems unlikely based on his track record)
3. Spend at the same 2.3 rate as his previous comp pick offsets (which I legitimately don’t think is even possible cap-wise)

I’m leaning toward option #1. The team’s ability to just drastically outspend their losses in free agency just isn’t available, and that’s really the only way they part ways with would-be compensatory picks.

Here’s a quick stab at the type of picks these players could land, based on contract projections I’ve seen, sources I’ve talked to and the current market for their positions:

• Malik Willis: 3rd/4th
• Rasheed Walker: 3rd/4th
• Quay Walker: 4th/5th
• Romeo Doubs: 4th/5th

So the gamble Green Bay would be taking by paying an average (I want to stress average) starting cornerback in this free agent cycle, for example, wouldn’t just be handing that player an $18 million per year contract…it would be handing him that money and also offsetting something like a fourth-round pick. Out spending losses in free agency is a little different when your top CFA is a sixth-round value like TJ Slaton, the situation the Packers were in last year, than when four fourth-round picks or better are potentially on the table.

Because of the pressure that comp picks are putting on this team, I think it makes more sense for the Packers to work in the cap casualty market or in the trade market than the meaningful compensatory free agent market ($5M+ APY) this offseason.

Green Bay could sign up to two cheaper CFAs in free agency if they just offset the losses of defensive end Kingsley Enagbare or center Sean Rhyan, should those two hit the market. The Packers are only allowed to collect four comp picks in a single year, so offsetting the Enagbare and Rhyan comp picks (which the team would never have access to because of the four-pick limit and those two players being firmly fifth and sixth place in the pecking order) would essentially function as free rolls if the team’s top four free agents sign elsewhere. In that scenario, one that the team has never been in before, maybe Gutekunst is willing to equal value offset the Enagbare/Rhyan “comp picks.” With that being said, players who would offset those lower-valued comp picks would most likely be priced as depth additions, not starting-caliber players. (See: Nose tackles like Roy Lopez or Khyris Tonga.)

On top of this, Green Bay is already over the cap for the 2026 season, so they’re not really in a position to spend big in 2026 anyway (unless they really want to start borrowing from the future already).

Gutekunst’s strategy really has been go big or go home. In the situation that the team is in right now, with limited ability to swing above the APY that their about-to-be-former players will receive on the open market, it’s probably time to go home (at least as far as the starting caliber free agent market goes). It certainly helps in this situation that Willis was already a backup on the team and that both Rasheed Walker and Doubs had their replacements drafted in the first rounds of the last two drafts.

There are worse places to be in this league than losing some high-priced free agents, gaining four high compensatory picks and only needing to plug one hole in the starting lineup for the whole exchange.

Future Situation – Get your house in order

Here’s something I want to push back on, though, because when I say that the Packers won’t be big spenders in 2026, people take it as the sky has fallen and the title window on Love-Parsons era has completely shut. That is simply not the case. Green Bay is in a cap crunch now, but the Packers are actually in a really good position in 2027. This is why, in the past, I have written about 2026 as a “get your house in order for 2027” offseason.

In 2027, the Packers will have $84 million in cap space, and that’s still counting players like Rashan Gary, Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs, who could potentially be cap-saving opportunities for Green Bay between now and then, still on the roster. If the front office can demonstrate some restraint in 2026, they’ll be really well-positioned in 2027 and 2028 to make a big push.

Yes, there are mouths to feed. Tucker Kraft and Christian Watson will almost certainly get multi-year extensions this offseason. Devonte Wyatt and Lukas Van Ness might, too, but the Packers backload these extensions (mostly four-year deals), which makes the early-season cap charges (2027 and 2028 would be Year 1 and Year 2 of these four-year extensions) very manageable. Even if Green Bay gets those four extensions done, they are in an honest-to-God good position to go on a spending spree again either in 2027 or 2028 (maybe both).

Here’s the hangup, though: If a spending spree is on the horizon, the team won’t be able to take in compensatory draft picks that year, because they’ll just offset their losses. To me, the best strategy for the 2026-2028 Packers is to make sure that any meaningful player (north of roughly $2.5 million APY on their next deal) who is set to hit the market in 2027 either gets a multi-year extension or is traded this year, so that the team can maximize the spending spree instead of just treading water.

The team has a bunch of cap space to play with in 2027. They will almost certainly use it (and then borrow from future cap space to keep the core of the team together down the stretch). That’s great, but that also means that the team won’t be getting anything if Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Isaiah McDuffie or Keisean Nixon leave in 2027 free agency, either, when they might be able to get a pick for them if they get a trade done in 2026. The trades of players (not wanted on multi-year extensions) entering contract years on top of the comp picks for the 2026 free agents is how’d they could really supercharge the 2027-2028 window.

From a cap standpoint, there is a two-year window in the next three years here (at least before borrowing gets out of hand — then anything is on the table), and the decision will be between 2026 and 2027 or 2027 and 2028. Because of the pressures from the compensatory picks in 2026, along with the Gary, Hobbs and Banks contracts not really working out, I think this team is going to pick the 2027 and 2028 option, whether they’ll ever admit it in public or not. If you see the Packers being hesitant to offset these high comp picks in free agency this year, just know that 2027 should be a big year in terms of spend — and there might be some trades coming, too. It’s just a product of how their contracts are scheduled.