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The Dodgers are going to win 130 games and blow away the NL West.
Of course they’re not going to do that. Isn’t that what was said about the Dodgers last year? They won exactly one more game than the Cubs did.
Obviously they’re the favorites to win their division again, as they have done 12 times in the last 13 years, missing out only in 2021 when they won 106 games but the Giants had that freak 107-win year. (And then LA beat the Giants in the postseason anyway.)
But a couple of other teams in this division have improved, and this division might be more competitive than you might think.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Key departures: Jalen Beeks, Ildemaro Vargas, Jake McCarthy, Blaze Alexander
Key arrivals: Nolan Arenado, Merrill Kelly, Carlos Santana, Paul Sewald, Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael Soroka
Look at that “arrivals” list. Looks like a 2019 All-Star team to me.
The D-backs did bring back Zac Gallen, who was rumored for a while to be coming to the Cubs, and re-united with Merrill Kelly, who they traded to the Rangers last summer.
The Cubs had Carlos Santana for a while last September. Remember that? Now he’s expected to be at least a platoon first baseman for Arizona — and he’ll turn 40 in April and hasn’t been dominant since, yes, 2019.
Nolan Arenado seems in career decline, too.
The D-backs still do have some good younger players, including Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno. An injury to Corbin Carroll puts the start of his season in jeopardy.
They finished 80-82 and it says here they won’t be much better than that.
At Wrigley Field: May 1-2-3
At Arizona: Aug. 24-25-26
SB Nation team site: AZ Snakepit
Colorado Rockies
Key departures: Germán Márquez, Kyle Farmer, Thairo Estrada, Sam Hilliard, Ryan Rolison, Michael Toglia, Warming Bernabel, Anthony Molina, Drew Romo, Angel Chivilli
Key arrivals: John Brebbia, Nicky Lopez, Keegan Thompson, Jake McCarthy, Michael Lorenzen, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Valente Bellozo, Tomoyuki Sugano, José Quintana
There is almost no chance this Rockies team could be worse than last year’s, which went 43-119, setting a franchise record. It was their third straight 100-loss season.
The Rockies actually played a bit better after starting the year 9-50. From that point until Aug. 31, they went 30-48, which is bad but not horrendous (it’s a 62-100 pace for a full season). Then they went 4-21 in September, which, yikes.
They’ve acquired a couple of decent veteran starters in Lorenzen, Sugano and Quintana and have a few decent young players in Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar.
Like the 2025 White Sox, who improved by 20 wins over their 41-121 season in 2024, the Rockies could post a 60-win season. Which is still bad, but would be a significant step in the right direction.
At Wrigley Field: June 15-16-17
At Colorado: June 9-10-11
SB Nation team site: Purple Row
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key departures: Clayton Kershaw, Michael Conforto, Michael Kopech, Kirby Yates, Justin Dean, Tony Gonsolin, Ben Rortvedt, Esteury Ruiz, Anthony Banda
Key arrivals: Kyle Tucker, Edwin Díaz, Cole Irvin, Michael Siani, Santiago Espinal
What can be said about the Dodgers that hasn’t already been said?
Kyle Tucker will be a complementary piece in L.A., a different role than he was expected to play in Houston. So if he’s healthy, that’s a big jump for a Dodgers offense that didn’t really need it (they led the NL in runs and home runs last year anyway).
The pitching rotation is its usual 11-deep, even after the retirement of Kershaw. And Díaz will head up a very deep bullpen.
And Shohei Ohtani will do more Shohei Ohtani things and very possibly win a fourth straight MVP (and fifth overall).
The Dodgers will probably win this division again. Maybe this time the Cubs will see them in October. I suspect the Cubs would have given the Dodgers a more competitive NLCS than the Brewers did.
At Wrigley Field: Aug, 3-4-5
At Los Angeles: April 24-25-26
SB Nation team site: True Blue LA
San Diego Padres
Key departures: Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Nestor Cortes, Jose Iglesias, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez
Key arrivals: Triston McKenzie, Jose Miranda, Marco Gonzales, Nick Castellanos, Ty France, Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning
The Padres are trying to address the departure of Dylan Cease with quantity — look at all the FA pitchers they signed. Who knows, maybe they can resurrect Walker Buehler into what he once was with the Dodgers. Griffin Canning is a good signing, and Germán Márquez should be better outside of Coors Field.
With Robert Suarez gone, mid-season acquisition Mason Miller moves into the closer role. He was lights-out (0.77 ERA, 0.729 WHIP, struck out 54.2 percent of batters faced, 45 of 83) as a setup guy last year, so if they can get the game to him they should win a lot of close ones.
At Wrigley Field: June 29-30-July 1
At San Diego: April 27-28-29
SB Nation team site: Gaslamp Ball
San Francisco Giants
Key departures: Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, Joey Lucchesi, Andrew Knizner
Key arrivals: Reiver Sanmartin, Sam Hentges, Caleb Kilian, Adrian Houser, Gregory Santos, Tyler Mahle, Eric Haase, Harrison Bader, Luis Arráez, Will Brennan, Michael Fulmer
The Giants had a very strange 2025 season. On June 13 they beat the Dodgers and at 41-29, were tied with them for first place in the NL West.
Then they went on a 20-39 skid that put them at 61-68, 12 games out of first. That was followed by a five-game winning streak that included a three-game sweep of the Cubs at Oracle Park, part of a 14-4 run that put them only a game and a half out of the last wild card spot.
From there the Giants went 7-9 and finished at exactly .500… the fourth straight year they have finished within four games of. 500 (starting in 2022: 81-81, 79-83, 80-82 and 81-81).
They are hoping all the miscellaneous pitchers they picked up will help them this year. They will have outstanding outfield defense with Harrison Bader now in center field and Jung Hoo Lee moved to right. Their left side infield defense is outstanding with Matt Chapman at third base and Willy Adames at short, but the right side… yikes, Luis Arráez at second and Rafael Devers at first is kinda frightening.
Looks like another .500 season in San Francisco. These teams will meet six times in a 10-day period in June.
At Wrigley Field: June 5-6-7
At San Francisco: June 12-13-14
SB Nation team site: McCovey Chronicles
Tomorrow: AL East