Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 1, Charlie Condon

1. Charlie Condon (563 points, 19 ballots)

Condon’s 2024 professional debut was a bit of a dud, but his first full season as a professional saw the 22-year-old righty slugger hit his way to Double-A. Condon received a MLB record-tying $9.25 million bonus as the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft (about $180k over slot) because of his huge offensive ceiling. He can translate his immense power into games, he hits for average, and has rare defensive ability for his size.

Condon was a one-man wrecking crew in 2024 for Georgia, as the 6’6”, 216-pound hitter smashed 37 homers — a record in the NCAA’s “BBCOR” bats era — and won the prestigious Golden Spikes award as the top amateur baseball player in the country. Given that success, it’s hard to believe that Condon (who played first, third, and all three outfield positions for Georgia) not only went undrafted as a high schooler but also was a walk-on who redshirted in 2022.

In 2023, Condon stepped into the Dawgs’ lineup and was an immediate success, swatting 25 homers in 56 games en route to a video game line of .386/.484/.800 in 254 plate appearances. That certainly got him on draft radars, and the aforementioned 2024 power explosion rocketed him up to, for many, the very top of the draft. In 304 plate appearances over 60 games for Georgia in 2024, Condon not only hit 37 homers, he also added 20 doubles and a triple while walking 16 more times than he struck out. In all, Condon hit a massive .433/.556/1.009 in 2024!

The Rockies assigned Condon straight to High-A Spokane, as befits a player many tabbed to move very quickly through the system. Unfortunately, Condon was downright bad for Spokane, hitting an anemic .180/.248/.270 (48 wRC+) with 34 strikeouts compared with four walks in 109 plate appearances while dealing with a bruised thumb. Condon did have six extra-base hits, including a homer, and four stolen bases (which is more than his entire collegiate total in two years at Georgia). That performance certainly soured many on Condon, but he still entered 2025 on many top 100 lists.

The 2025 season didn’t get off to a good start for Condon, who suffered a non-displaced left wrist fracture in his very first minor league spring training game. The injury kept Condon out until mid-May (after a nine-game rehab stint with the complex league team) when the Rockies sent Condon back to Spokane. Condon was much more successful in his return engagement, hitting .312/.431/.420 in 167 plate appearances across 35 games with three homers and six doubles (134 wRC+). The Rockies promoted Condon to Double-A Hartford on July 1st, where he was 1.5 years younger than league average — and not long after, Condon was selected to the prestigious MLB Futures Game (he started at first base and went 0-for-3).

In 237 plate appearances with Hartford, Condon had a .235/.342/.465 batting line with 11 homers among his 21 extra-base hits, which equated to an impressive 132 wRC+. There were still warts on the profile — Condon has struck out in 28% of his plate appearances in Double-A (walking in 11%) and he seemingly slid down the defensive spectrum from a third baseman/outfielder to primarily a first baseman (one error in 74 games there) who occasionally played left field and third base (two errors in five games there). Fans expecting the monstrous power Condon showed at Georgia no doubt expect more too, but at the end of the day a 132 wRC+ in Condon’s initial exposure to Double-A is pretty encouraging.

Condon finished the season in the Arizona Fall League to replace some of the at-bats he lost with his delayed start to the year. Against a less polished set of pitchers, Condon feasted with a .337/.439/.434 line in 98 plate appearances, including a homer, two triples, and a double. He was also named as a Fall Star.

This spring, Condon received a big league spring training invite, where the Rockies have played Condon in the outfield corners as well to lean into his defensive versatility. Condon is off to a hot start, hitting a massive homer earlier this week against the Angels, and discussed some of his goals with Purple Row’s Sam Bradfield last weekend.

Here’s some looks at Condon during the Arizona Fall League (including an absolute bomb of a grand slam at the 2:15 mark):

Here are some of Condon’s 2025 highlights.

Multiple outlets ranked Condon atop their 2024 draft rankings and some of them still have Condon in their top 100.

Keith Law of the Athletic had Condon as the number one player in the draft, then ranked Condon 46th on his top 100 (number two in the system) earlier this month:

Condon’s first full pro season got off to a miserable start, as he broke his wrist making a diving catch in spring training, missing seven weeks before he got back to High A. He hit fairly well there, with his power diminished likely as a result of the injury, posting a .312/.431/.420 line with a modest chase rate of 20 percent. He then moved to Double A and hit .235/.342/.465 as he had real difficulty picking up off-speed stuff. Condon has electric bat speed and hammers fastballs, showing at least 70 power in college, but he moved his hands back up in 2025 after dropping them in his draft year, and I think that’s one of the reasons he’s not reacting to breaking pitches or changeups that well. (There are, unfortunately, rumors that while he was at Georgia, the Dogs were stealing signs, so their hitters might have known what was coming.) He did bounce back a little in the AFL, reaching 111.6 mph and showing better swing decisions, although the pitching out there was not close to what he saw nightly in Double A.

Condon is a good enough athlete to handle an outfield corner, though the Rockies played him primarily at first base last year, as it’s a position of real need for them and he has experience on the dirt at third base. He has 30-plus homer upside, easily, and the patience and zone awareness to be a valuable hitter even if he hits .240-.250. The new regime in Denver should have a clear plan for helping him get back to the hitter he was in 2024 when he was the No. 3 pick in the draft.

FanGraphs just ranked Condon 67th overall as a 50 FV player, second in the system (after ranking him fourth among draft prospects in 2024), with a 70 raw power and 60 future game power grade to go along with a 60 arm:

With two hand injuries in the rear-view mirror, it’s time for Condon to prove he can tap into the plus-plus power that made him such a coveted amateur prospect.

Condon put up cartoonish numbers at Georgia, homering 62 times in two seasons, including 37 times in 2024 alone, when he hit .433/.446/1.009 in a Golden Spikes-winning campaign. He was considered by many the top prospect in that year’s draft, and when he fell to the third overall pick, Colorado seemed a perfect match of offensive upside and future park.

It may still prove to be. Eric was (and remains) skeptical of Condon even while he was riding roughshod over the SEC, and his first year-and-a-half of pro at-bats have only validated pre-draft concerns about a grooved bat path and trouble recognizing spin. You can wave away a rough pro debut, as post-draft cameos are kind of awkward, and he was battling through a bone spur in his finger at the time anyway. But even as a wrist fracture last spring complicates the evaluation of his 2025 performance, it’s becoming fair to wonder how much pop Condon will bring into games.

There’s little doubt about his raw impact. Condon is a big guy with plus bat speed and a powerful swing that produces data commensurate with the visual evaluation. His 90th-percentile exit velocity was nearly 106 mph and his max was over 112, both of which are plus. He also had a 44% hard-hit rate and a 13 degree average launch angle that looks, well, like a match for a guy who bashed 60 homers in college. Still, he only homered 14 times in 99 games while running a 131 wRC+ across High- and Double-A, which are both fine in the aggregate but underwhelming for a player with this skill set. This coincided with a move to first base — perhaps just to protect the wrist, perhaps not. We’ll see what Colorado’s new regime decides to do here, because Condon has played elsewhere and looked like a perfectly fine corner outfielder as a pro.

Ultimately, the power potential here is too great to ignore despite everything else. There’s enough noise and hand injuries lurking to think that there’s some small chance of a big breakout coming, but even if there’s not, Condon projects as a 2-3 WAR player with 35-plus homer potential, even if he’s flawed elsewhere.

MLB Pipeline (who had him second among draft prospects) ranks Condon 70th overall as a 55 FV player with a 55 grade on his power hit, and arm tools:

The 6-foot-6 right-handed hitter still uses the largely upright stance, bent at the knees, lower hands and simple mechanics that brought him so much success at Georgia, but without the same impact. With the Bulldogs, he showed he could hit the ball out of the park to all fields with plenty of bat speed and leverage. While he’s continued to draw walks, his overall approach has suffered as a pro. The injuries clearly have played a part, especially in getting to his raw power, but he’s struggled against softer stuff, with a 40 percent miss rate against breaking and offspeed stuff at all stops in 2025. His approach was better in the AFL, albeit without impact.

In college, Condon played all over the outfield (where his arm plays well) and at third, but since joining the Rockies, it’s been almost all first base, with a little corner outfield mixed in. The corner-infield spot is his most likely home long-term, which puts more pressure on the power to show up. The Rockies, for their part, aren’t as concerned, thinking that his all-around hitting is coming around and the pop will follow.

Multiple scouts have drawn comparisons between Condon and Kris Bryant. While, of course, Bryant’s tough tenure with the Rockies (three more years!) have left a sour taste in the mind of fans, he deservedly won the Rookie of the Year and NL MVP awards in his first two years as a big leaguer and has been an All-Star four times. Condon has the kind of offensive potential and defensive utility that could make him a star in the league for several years (especially if he is able to get his power into games), so he deservedly ranks in this range in the PuRPs poll — he was number two on my list as a 55 FV player.

Condon’s 2025 results weren’t problem-free (strikeouts in particular) and I’m worried about his slide down the defensive spectrum (but am encouraged by him playing in the outfield this spring). Still, it was nice to see him doing some damage at Double-A. He should begin the year in Triple-A Albuquerque and could force his way into the lineup sometime this season, though the role and impact is still up in the air.

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