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Who would have thought just two years ago that a Pistons vs. Thunder game would be getting flexed onto ESPN because both teams are number 1 in the Conference. Obviously, that isn’t a huge surprise for the reigning NBA Champs, but the Pistons lost 28 games in a row just 2 years ago, they aren’t supposed to be here this fast.
Monday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs lived up to the hype, but the Pistons ultimately fell as their offense sputtered in the 2nd half. With how reliant they are on inside shooting, facing off against a game-wrecker like Victor Wembanyama is not a good matchup. The Spurs might be the worst matchup for the Pistons for that reason alone.
This isn’t to downplay the Thunder at all, they have the best record in the West for a reason and also sport the number 1 defense in the NBA, just in front of the Pistons. They have length, they are physical, and play just like the Pistons, so this game could get ugly.
Game Vitals
Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI
When: Wednesday, February 25 at 7:30 pm EST
Watch: ESPN or Fan Duel Sports Network Detroit
Odds: Detroit (-7.5)
Analysis
You might be looking at those odds and be in shock, but there is a pretty good reason for it. The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. That does not mean that this will be an easy game. Just like the Pistons, the Thunder are a very deep team and their defensive infrastructure is still in place no matter who is on the court.
It goes without saying how important SGA and Jalen Williams are to the Thunder, but missing Ajay Mitchell is a very underrated loss. He has been a key player off the bench during his breakout season after going in the 2nd round last year. Just another example of the rich getting richer.
With those 3 players out, the Thunder will be forced to rely on Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace to provide more offense. Both players are capable of providing more on offense, but there is a reason why they are complements to SGA and Jalen Williams to a lesser extent.
One player who has really stepped up in the absence of SGA is Isaiah Joe, who scored 22 points on 6-11 shooting from beyond the arc last night against the Raptors. He also had the exact same shooting line in a win against the Cavaliers on Sunday. He is a lethal shooter who can take over a game if left open, so the Pistons will need to adjust their defensive gameplan so they are not leaving him open like they did for the Spurs shooters on Monday.
The easy explanation for that is that the San Antonio Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, who is such a threat on both ends of the court that you have to change everything about how you play in order to stop him. For the Pistons, that meant putting extra pressure on him and leaving shooters open and letting your half court offense get completely stifled by his rim pressence.
Luckily, the Thunder don’t have anybody like Wemby. Chet Homgren is close, especially on defense, but he doesn’t have the same length and can be put in check a little bit with physicality. He also is not as skilled on offense, but can still make you pay if you don’t guard him. Whether he is able to step up offensively is a key factor in this game, as he is coming off a 7-point performance against the Raptors last night.
I would not be surprised to see some Paul Reed and Jalen Duren minutes to counter the Holmgren-Hartenstein frontcourt. This would have been a great matchup to unleash the Isaiah Stewart-Jalen Duren frontcourt, but Stewart is still out with his suspension. Tobias Harris should be able to handle Holmgren for some of the game, but is at a severe size disadvantage.
Another reason for the offensive struggles for the Pistons against the Spurs on Monday, and Cade Cunningham in particular, was the constant ball pressure by Stephon Castle. He was able to stay in front of him and had the strength to match his physicality. Castle is near the top of the list of defenders in the league capable of givng Cade Cunningham trouble.
Cason Wallace is at that level on defense with being able to pressure the ball and stay on his man, but he doesn’t quite have the size that Stephon Castle has, so the Thunder may opt to have Lu Dort guard Cade so he cannot get into rhythm offensively by outmuscling a smaller guard.
There is a reason these two teams are the top two teams in the league defensively, both are very physical and great at playing passing lanes to generate turnovers. With SGA being out, the Pistons are at least on an even playing field offensively, so this could be a very ugly game that ends with double digit scores for both teams.
With how tough the Pistons schedule is this week and next week, facing the Thunder while missing three key players is the perfect time to face them, so the Pistons need to take advantage of it. Don’t let the odds fool you, the Pistons have a great shot at winning, but the Thunder are where they are for a reason and it will not be easy.
Lineups
Detroit Pistons (42-14): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
Oklahoma City Thunder (45-14): Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, Chet Homgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
Question of the Day
How concerned are you with the Pistons performance on Monday against the Spurs. Was it just a bad night or a sign of things to come in the playoffs?