All of this offseason talk around the Orioles’ “need” for an ace seems to ignore the fact that they already have one in-house. Kyle Bradish was one of the best pitchers in the league back in 2023. That year saw him post a 2.83 ERA over 168.2 innings, finishing fourth in AL Cy Young voting. The odds that they would find anyone better than that (talent-wise, anyway) this past offseason were low.
But of course there are legitimate questions about current-day Bradish. That 2023 campaign was also his last full, healthy season. He entered 2024 with a sprain in his right UCL. After just eight starts that year, he needed to undergo Tommy John surgery, the rehab from which carried over to 2025 and limited him to only six late-season starts there. Asking him to jump right back to the front of a contender’s rotation could be a tall task.
While the quantity of Bradish’s outings the last two seasons have been low, the quality has been as good as ever. In that time he has a 2.65 ERA and 2.48 FIP over 71.1 total innings, with 100 strikeouts, and 25 walks. The concern will be with what sort of workload he can handle in the season ahead.
Here is what two prominent projection systems expect for Bradish in 2026:
- ZiPS: 100 IP, 3.51 ERA, 9.54 K/9, 2.88 BB/9
- BRef: 80 IP, 3.38 ERA, 9.80 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
These projections believe that Bradish is either going to miss more time in 2026, or that he will have an innings limit. That was sort of the case once the Orioles activated him last year. He averaged six innings per start, but he was largely limited to one start a week rather than every fifth day, and never threw more than 91 pitches in a start. Bradish himself has said there could be some constraints on him, particularly early in the season.
The Orioles’ goal in all of this must be to have him firing on all cylinders by sometime in the second half of the season. He has the potential to be their “Game 1 Starter” by the time the postseason rolls around. But both he and the O’s will need to make it there first.
What do you think of these projections? How many big league innings do you expect Bradish to throw in 2026, and what sort of quality will we see? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section.