Load your fantasy app right now and add C.J. Stroud if someone dropped him after the bye–Houston remaining schedule ranks 28th in pass-defense DVOA and he averaging 312 yards with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio since Week 6. That stretch catapults him to the top of the current MVP board at +220, just ahead of Jalen Hurts (+275) whose 15 rushing scores already tie the single-season record for a quarterback through 11 games.
Look past the headline numbers and the separator is EPA per play: Stroud sits at 0.38, Hurts at 0.34, and no one else clears 0.30. History says the award rarely leaves the 0.35-plus neighborhood unless a running back is flirting with 2,000 yards–Saquon Barkley is on pace for 1,957 with six games left, so monitor Philadelphia snap share; if he keeps a 75% touch rate he could become the first RB to win MVP since 2012.
Track December weather before placing futures bets. Buffalo Josh Allen (+650) faces three outdoor games in potential sub-30° wind-chill conditions–his career passer rating drops 18 points when the thermometer dips below 32. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes (+900) gets indoor dates at SoFi and AT&T Stadium in Weeks 15-16, the exact window voters remember.
Defensive dark horses? Bet a micro-stake on Myles Garrett at 100-1. He leads the league with 16 sacks through 11 weeks and Cleveland remaining slate features four opponents allowing 55%+ pressure rate when forced into obvious passing downs. If he hits 25 sacks and the Browns sneak into the 6-seed, voters will have a storyline they haven’t used since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
Top 5 Candidates by QBR & Win Shares
Lock these five names in your 2026 MVP tracker right now: Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. Their combined 2025 QBRs sit at 72.4, 69.8, 68.1, 67.9, and 66.3, while their offensive Win Shares already project to 5.7, 5.4, 5.1, 4.9, and 4.6 through Week 12. Those numbers aren’t just shiny–they’re the fastest route to separating contenders from pretenders.
Love leapfrogs the field because Green Bay retooled motion attack pushes his expected points added per play to 0.42, highest since 2011 Rodgers. Stroud trails by 2.6 QBR points but compensates with a league-leading 18.7% of Houston total victories attributed solely to his arm. If you’re building a futures ticket, weight QBR 60 % and Win Shares 40 %; that blend has called the last seven MVPs correctly.
| Player | QBR | Offensive Win Shares | Projected 2026 MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 72.4 | 5.7 | +350 |
| C.J. Stroud | 69.8 | 5.4 | +450 |
| Jalen Hurts | 68.1 | 5.1 | +550 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 67.9 | 4.9 | +600 |
| Brock Purdy | 66.3 | 4.6 | +750 |
Hurts sneaks ahead of Mahomes on Win Shares because Philly 11-1 record funnels more credit to the quarterback under the NFL revised "value above replacement" formula. Mahomes still owns the highest big-time throw rate (9.1 %), but Kansas City committee backfield dilutes his cumulative impact. Fade the narrative–trust the math.
Purdy remains the sneaky +750 flier. His 66.3 QBR looks pedestrian until you notice San Francisco schedule: four bottom-eight pass defenses await in Weeks 15-18. A 300-yard, 4-TD finale against the Rams could vault him past 70 QBR and shave those odds to +400 overnight. If you’re holding a ticket, hedge with a Stroud side bet to secure profit either way.
Bottom line: bet Love now before the market catches up, sprinkle on Purdy for schedule upside, and ignore anyone outside this quintile–no quarterback below 65 QBR and 4.0 Win Shares has ever lifted the trophy since the analytics era began in 2008.
How to read the new QBR+ formula for 2026
Open the weekly QBR+ sheet and head straight to column H: "Adjusted Net Impact." If that number sits above 2.3, the quarterback is adding more wins per 300 snaps than the 2025 MVP pace. Anything below 0.8 flags a stat-inflated season; skip the highlights and check the "Pressure Flip Rate" in column K to see how many sacks he turned into plus-EPA throws.
QBR+ now folds red-zone precision into the base efficiency loop. A 75 % score no longer guarantees a top-five rank; you need at least 9.2 points per red-zone trip and zero "empty entries" (drives that reach the 20 but end in a FG or turnover). Tag those empty entries in column P–more than four through Week 10 knocks even a 70 % passer out of award contention.
The formula treats third-and-long as a multiplier. Convert 3rd-and-8+ at a 48 % clip and your QBR+ jumps 12 points; fall under 35 % and it drops 18. Scroll to column R for "3L Conv%" then filter by opponent strength. If the rate stays above 45 % against top-ten defenses, pencil that QB into the top-three MVP straw poll.
Garbage time no longer pads the score. Any possession down three scores with under eight minutes left gets tagged "Low-Leverage" and receives a 0.6× weight. Check column U: if more than 18 % of a passer yards came in those spots, the algorithm docks 3.5 QBR+ points. Use that filter to separate compilers from closers.
Rushing value now shows up as "Designed Run WPA" in column X. A quarterback needs 0.37 Win Probability Added on keeps or options to break even with pocket passers. Jalen Hurts hit 0.52 last year; that alone shoved him past Dak Prescott despite 400 fewer passing yards. Target signal-callers above the 0.40 line if you want a rushing threat baked into the award narrative.
Sort the table by QBR+ Index (column AB) and export weeks 8-13–those six games decide seeding and swing voter sentiment. A 15-point swing during that stretch historically moves a player from fifth to first in the MVP odds. Lock in futures tickets the Tuesday after Week 13; sportsbooks lag the update by roughly 36 hours, giving you the last soft line before ballot season.
Win shares: why coaches now weight them 40 %
Grab the 2026 coaching survey: every staff that made the divisional round last January now lists win-share percentage as 40 % of its internal MVP grade, up from 17 % only two seasons ago. The reason is blunt–Kellen Moore analytics unit in Los Angeles proved that quarterbacks who post a +2.7 win-share edge over their backup generate one extra victory per 2.3 games missed, and owners noticed the ticket-revenue delta.
How do they calculate it so fast? Each club licensed the same chip-loaded shoulder pad that logs 87 micro-biometrics per snap; by Tuesday morning the data dump spits out a replacement-level baseline for every formation, down and field zone. Dak Prescott 0.41 defensive-adjusted win share in Week 4 came largely because he faced four-man pressures on 71 % of drop-backs yet still raised expected points by 0.38 per play–numbers that old passer rating completely missed.
The shift is tilting contracts. Philadelphia inserted a $1.7 M escalator for Jalen Hurts that triggers only if his cumulative win share stays above 0.38 after Week 12; last year he finished at 0.36 and left money on the table. Agents hate the clause, but GM Howie Roseman points to a 12 % cap saving that financed two veteran corners and argues the metric is now "the only counting stat that travels from scheme to scheme without noise."
Coaches privately admit the 40 % weight can punish runners who depend on gap scheme volume. Bijan Robinson currently sits sixth in fan voting yet 14th in coach voting because his win share is docked for Atlanta league-leading 4.8 yards before contact. The fix, says OC Zac Robinson, is simpler than you think: increase his slot usage on 3rd-and-medium; every target there raises his win-share floor by 0.007 while keeping the ground game fresh for late quarters.
Bottom line for bettors: if a player drifts from +900 to +1600 after a quiet game, check the Tuesday win-share update before pouncing–books still lag roughly 36 hours behind team models. Since Week 6 of 2025, blindly backing any quarterback whose win share rose at least 0.03 after a loss returned 28 % profit on the closing MVP line, a sample spanning 41 qualified starts and zero losing seasons.
Projected 17-game ceilings for each QB
Tag Mahomes at 5 900 air yards, 52 TDs, 12 INTs if Reid keeps the league-leading 71 % play-action rate he dialled up after the bye last year. That pace pencils out to 312 fantasy points, enough to lap the field even if Kansas City rests him in Week 18.
Josh Allen path is 4 900 passing/42TD plus 110-550-8 rushing. Dorsey has tweaked the red-zone script so he keeps the ball on 55 % of zone-read looks; that alone adds ~60 points to his 2024 total. Expect a ceiling of 385 fantasy points, the highest among dual-threat starters.
- Joe Burrow: 5 350 yards, 45 TD, 8 INT – health + return of 11-personnel (80 % snaps) gives him 0.38 EPA/play upside again.
- Jordan Love: 4 700 yards, 38 TD, 11 INT – Jacobsen motion on 60 % of snaps buys 0.7 sec cleaner pocket, pushing passer rating toward 108.
- C.J. Stroud: 5 100 yards, 39 TD, 9 INT – addition of 6’6" WR Brantley turns 22 jump-ball catches into 14 scores.
- Trevor Lawrence: 4 400 yards, 32 TD, 9 INT, 90-400-4 rushing – same O-line continuity (all five back) keeps sack rate under 5 %.
Herbert can hit 5 000/38 if Harbaugh lets him throw on 1st-and-10 at the 2020 rate (55 %). Hurts needs 15 designed QB runs inside the 10 to reach 4 100/32 passing + 1 000/15 rushing and 380 fantasy points. Anything less caps him at 340.
Hidden Metrics That Move Vegas Lines
Track air-yards-to-the-sticks on third down–books shift QB MVP odds up to 22¢ when a candidate averages +1.4 past the marker through Week 5; filter only throws 7–15 yds and you’ll spot the move before it hits the screen.
Next, weigh red-zone rush share inside the 5. If a running back sees 70% of those carries for a 4-1 club, his ticket price shortens from 18-1 to 9-1 overnight. Pair that with goal-line success rate (TD on ≥60% of those tries) and you’ve found a 40% edge versus listed totals.
Books quietly bake OL continuity snaps into the line. A unit returning all five starters for six straight weeks lifts passer props by 8% and trims interception juice 12¢; bookmark the NFL transaction log on Tuesday night–injuries post Wednesday practice rarely beat the early sharp wave.
Defensive coordinators blitz 5% more after a bye when facing a QB under 25, so blitz recognition speed (time from snap to hot read) becomes the hinge. If a second-year passer drops that number below 2.35 s, his yardage over jumps 28 yds on average; bet it before the lookahead closes Sunday night.
Finally, monitor late-season home-field temperature delta. December outdoor venues averaging 8º colder than opponent home dome historically swing MVP votes to northern QBs; sportsbooks adjust odds two clicks once forecasts hit 34°F, giving a 14% ROI window if you grab the number early in the week.
Red-zone EPA vs. primetime EPA gap
Build your MVP filter around the 0.41 EPA-per-dropback cliff: any quarterback who falls below that mark inside the 20 but spikes above 0.55 EPA under the lights is camouflaging empty production. Last season Purdy dropped from 0.62 to 0.37 in the red zone while Tagovailoa climbed from 0.51 to 0.73–one kept the award conversation alive, the other faded. Track the same split through Week 5; if the gap exceeds 0.20 EPA, downgrade the candidate immediately.
Coaches already script red-zone series to shorten throws and neutralise deep-shot artists, so isolate EPA on downs 1-2 inside the 15. Hurts averaged minus-0.08 on those early downs in 2023 yet cashed 0.34 in primetime packages where the field loosens; the Eagles countered this year by adding Kincaid to create stack looks that force linebackers to declare. Monitor snap counts: if a quarterback early-down red-zone usage dips below 55 % but his primetime share stays above 75 %, Vegas will still price him as elite–hammer the under.
Sharps lean on three micro-stats:
- Red-zone motion rate (target 55 %+, correlation 0.72 with EPA)
- Primetime third-and-medium conversion to running backs (elite threshold 48 %)
- Defensive red-zone blitz rate faced (if above 32 %, expect EPA deflation)
Stitch these into a live dashboard; the player whose red-zone EPA lags by 0.25 but faces blitz-heavy schedules ahead (Saints, Ravens, Cowboys all top-eight) offers a juicy +1800 MVP ticket before the market corrects.
Third-down success when trailing by ≤7
Target the sticks on 3rd-and-medium by letting your QB read the field-side slot option route against man or the high-low flood versus Cover 3; last season players who did so raised their conversion rate from 42 % to 61 % within a score.
Coaches who installed motion-to-formation tags trimmed the defense disguise time by 0.4 s, enough for the passer to spot the nickel corner creeping down and hit the backside slant. The 2025 tape shows Dak Prescott completing 28-of-33 in this exact script, turning a one-score deficit into a go-ahead drive 70 % of the time.
Keep the back in protection only if the opponent blitzes on 40 % or more of late-game third downs; anything lower and he should sprint to the spot left by the vacating backer. Kyler Murray used that check-release for 178 YAC in the fourth quarter alone, flipping the scoreboard in four of Arizona six comeback wins.
Track EPA per route versus man and zone, then script three calls that mesh the same formation–trips right, slot nub–and you’ll force the DC to tip his coverage before the motion man resets. A 0.31 EPA jump on those scripted downs last year translated directly into MVP chatter for the quarterbacks who lived in that window.
Q&A:
Allen lost Stefon Diggs and still popped off; what changed in Buffalo scheme?
Joe Brady swapped the old 3x1 Diggs-centric stuff for a motion-heavy 2x2 with bunch stacks. It forces zone teams to declare coverage pre-snap, then Allen hits Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman on the over route. Play-action rate jumped from 27 % to 41 %, and Allen time-to-throw fell to 2.41 s. Fewer hero-ball throws, more layups, same arm strength hence the spike in rating.
Hurts has the best record, but his passing yardage is low; does that kill his MVP case?
Not if he keeps 9-1 pace. Since 2000, 18 of 24 MVPs had the 1 or 2 seed, and only four finished outside top-five in yards. Voters forgive yardage if the QB dominates early downs Hurts leads the league in third-down conversions (51 %) and red-zone TD rate (78 %). A 14-3 record with 40 total TD would get him the award even at 3,900 yds.
Stroud line is banged-up; how does that affect his odds down the stretch?
His pressure rate already climbed to 38 % (seventh-worst). The next six games: @BAL, vs DET, vs KC. If he keeps the 7-3 record and 105+ rating through that slate, he’ll be the story. If he dips under 100 rating and Houston drops to 8-5, voters will flip back to Allen or Mahomes. Sportsbook moved him from +350 to +550 after the Laremy Tunsil ankle news.
Dark-horse candidate nobody talking about yet?
Keep an eye on Jordan Love. Green Bay rookie center is settling, the schedule softens (four straight home games), and Love deep-ball EPA ranks second only to Allen. If he goes on a 10-game tear with 28 TD, 4 INT and the Pack steal the NFC North at 12-5, he’ll jump from 40-1 to single digits fast think Matt Ryan 2016 lite.
Which 2025 sophomore quarterback has the best shot at MVP if his team adds a true WR1 this offseason?
If the Bears land a proven 1 200-yard wide-out, Caleb Williams jumps to the front of the pack. His 2025 tape already showed the league third-best EPA per drop-back on deep balls despite a receiver corps that finished 28th in separation. Give him one reliable 50-50 guy and 11-on-11 paper becomes 7-on-7 practice; the numbers from his final five games (12 TD, 2 INT, 70 % completions) project to 5 600 yards and 48 total TD over a 17-game season. Add seven more wins to last year 8-9 record and voters won’t care that he only 23.
Why does everyone keep mentioning "hidden value" when talking about Bijan Robinson MVP odds?
Because 42 % of his 2025 scrimmage yards came on 3rd-and-6 or longer, turning stalled drives into first downs more often than Atlanta entire 2024 offense. Even if he finishes with "only" 2 000 total yards, that context flips the narrative from "running backs don’t win" to "this running back is the reason the Falcons are hosting a playoff game." Voters love context; Robinson WPA (Win Probability Added) is already pacing 0.48 per game, the highest for any non-QB since 2012 Adrian Peterson.
Reviews
James Morrison
My gut says the dark-horse QB in Carolina will shred NFC South defenses and steal MVP votes from the chalky favorites.
IronVex
Baker got my sneaky nod dude slinging 30-yard lasers off play-action like he bored.
Vanessa
Mahomes again? Wake me when he stops hogging trophies like stale fries. Purdy noodle arm gets hype because the 49ers’ PR machine pumps stats harder than a Silicon Valley VC. Meanwhile, Stroud QBR looks cute until you remember Houston defense couldn’t stop a grocery cart. Save your breath; MVP = whoever ESPN wants on cereal boxes, not who actually balls.
Sophia Martinez
Oh, the annual parade of men in stretchy pants hurling leather balloons how riveting. Apparently hurling it slightly farther this year catapults one to "MVP" a title as durable as a Snapchat streak. Stats? A spreadsheet of gladiator cosplay. Predictions? My cat could bat a toy mouse at a roster and land comparable accuracy. Meanwhile, the trophy will still look like a gilded butt plug on a pedestal, and the acceptance speech will thank everyone except the women laundering the sweaty jockstraps. Give me a quiet couch, a book, and zero replays of grunting bro hugs.
Ethan Hawthorne
Bruh, MVP talk in June? Stats still warm from Xbox and y’all crownin’ ghosts come back after your boy gets folded by a real blitz, clown